End of NSW lockdown looks promising with measures “flattening the curve”

After almost 12 weeks of lockdown in NSW, experts report hopeful signs that the COVID-19 curve is flattening in Greater Sydney.

After being trapped in our proverbial caves for nearly 3 months, you’d be forgiven for thinking the current NSW lockdown measures have been unsuccessful in reducing COVID-19 transmissions.

However, things appear to be looking up as data suggests NSW may finally be flattening the COVID curve.

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Catherine Bennett, Chair of Epidemiology at Deakin University, said that transmissions of the virus have already started slowing.

For a golden ticket to freedom, “flattening the curve” was all the “rage” in pre-Delta 2020. However, this strategy was abandoned in more recent months in exchange for higher vacciation rates.

The Premier’s new hardline approach to lockdown may be doing the trick.


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Bennet mentioned that during most of the Delta outbreak, the reproduction rate of COVID (how many, people catch the virus from an infected individual) had been 1.3. Over the past two weeks, this number has declined to a steady 1 – resulting in a flatter curve.

Ideally, we want to get this number below 1, which will mean that fewer people are catching the virus than being infected.

Speaking with ABC radio national epidemiologist Adrian Esterman said:

“I’m seeing the rate in growth of cases slowing right down. So it has all the signs of a peak, but the numbers are not there to tell me it is a peak and it won’t be for a few days yet, but I am very optimistic,” 

However, with NSW pubs set to open at a reduced capacity in mid-October, experts anticipate a rise in case numbers if we don’t stay vigilant.

Despite the seemingly positive news, others are not so hopeful, with health authorities stating that “it’s too early to know if we’re flattening the curve”.

American Podcast giant Joe Rogan, who contracted COVID-19 earlier this month, has even weighed in on Australia’s lockdowns stating:

“There’s some crazy s**t going on right now where the army is trying to keep people inside in Australia,”

“They have full-on government lockdowns where the government is flying helicopters over the streets (and telling people) ‘go back indoors, you’re not allowed to be outside’, which is crazy.”

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America is currently sitting around 50% vaccination and is seeing an increase in cases.

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For most of us, it can be quite tiring to hear about the ebb and flow of case numbers.

A good way to stay positive is to check out Covid Live, a website that shows vaccination rates in real-time.

If you are struggling at all with the lockdown, there are some great free mental health services listed below: