BOM has revealed there is a high chance of a La Nina developing before the end of 2020 which would bring wetter conditions than normal.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has revealed that there is a 70 per cent chance of a La Nina forming in the coming months, around three times the normal likelihood.
The prediction could bring higher rainfall across parts of the country and cooler temperatures throughout the summer months.
La Nina is a phenomenon created by strong winds around the equator and changing ocean tides which disturb cold water from lower depths and cool the tropical Pacific Ocean.
“La Nina typically increases rainfall across Northern, Central, and Eastern Australia and can raise the risk of flooding in some parts,” described BOM climatologist Naomi Benger.
And we are off plant 2021! Fabas going into some heavy soil with a full bank and now raining… Intrested to see how they fair with la nina supposedly coming! pic.twitter.com/D94UmEzcik— Patrick Sessions (@Lengetia_farm) August 18, 2020
Whilst a La Nina would be welcome news for any areas in drought, it has the potential to bring greater risks of flooding and cyclones to other parts, according to BOM.
“With more cloud and wetter soils, La Nina often brings milder daytime temperatures. We can also see an earlier start to the tropical cyclone season,” Benger described.
Our #ENSO Outlook has moved to #LaNiña ALERT. This means there’s around a 70% chance of La Niña developing in 2020—around 3 x the usual chance.— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) August 18, 2020
So, what signals are we seeing in our oceans and the atmosphere, and what could La Niña mean for Australia? https://t.co/xQ0C6yIWwo pic.twitter.com/D5YccN9em8
La Nina has been behind the six wettest periods ever recorded in eastern Australia between winter and spring.
However, the last time the phenomenon occurred in 2017 it was so short-lived it failed to bring predicted rain and instead led to the drought.
“The last significant La Nina event was in 2010-11, and that was Australia’s wettest two-year period on record,” Benger described, as reported by the ABC.
If a La Nina does develop, the intensity of the conditions will be based upon a number of factors.